Data set chosen
I have chosen the GapMinder data set for my research question. I have also selected some additional data from the GapMinder website to substantiate my research.
Research questions
a) Is there any relation between the income per person (incomperperson) of a country versus polity score (polityscore). The question I try to answer is if the income per person in each country has any bearing on the democratic nature of the country.
b) Do high oil consuming (oilperperson) and high income countries (incomeperperson) have a higher democracy score (polityscore)?
c) Are there any other influences to democracy like the influence of armed security forces?
Hypothesis
1. Poorer countries are less democratic.
2. Highly urbanised and high oil consuming countries tend to be more democratic.
3. Some countries due to historical reasons will have a higher democracy score with low income levels and vice versa.
4. High oil consuming countries will highly correlate with high incomes and high democracy scores.
5. High armed forces personnel will negatively correlate to democracy scores.
The variables selected for the study are from the dataset attached to the course (gapminder.csv):
country, oilperperson, incomeperperson, polityscore, armedforcesrate
Some other time series datasets from GapMinder I am using are
Literature review
1. Determinants of Democracy by Barro, Robert J. 1999 (Journal of Political Economy 107(S6): 158-183.)
Summary
Barro investigates the claim that higher standards of living promote democracy.
Barro concludes that higher standards of living do promote democracy. He also concludes than democracy scores tends to fall with urbanization where urbanization implies a greater reliance on natural resources.
2. Income and Democracy by Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James A. Robinson, Pierre Yared
Summary
The paper investigates an earlier study by Barro (1999, S160) where an increase in the standard of living forecasts a gradual rise in democracy which presumes a positive relationship between income and democracy.
Daron et al. suggest that keeping certain factors constant in a country termed in the literature as "country fixed effects" they hypothesise that there is no causal effect of income on democracy i.e. the positive relationship between income and democracy disappear.
Daron et al. therefore conclude that due to "country fixed effects" there is no causal relationship between income and democracy.
3. DOES OIL HINDER DEMOCRACY? by Michael L. Ross
Summary
The paper investigates two claims.
One, is to investigate the claim that high income and high oil wealth countries have an anti democratic influence especially in the Middle East. The investigation goes further to research whether the removal of the influence of religion, culture and colonial history has any effect on the influence between oil wealth and democracy.
Second, whether the claim of negative influence of oil wealth with democracy can be generalised geographically and whether the hypothesis is true also for other rich natural resources other than oil within a country.
Ross concludes that
1. Oil wealth does hurt democracy ie. oil does have an anti-democratic influence. Oil does more damage to poorer countries than to rich countries.
2. He concludes that the damage done by oil is not restricted to Middle East.
3. Non fuel minerals also impede democratization.
4. High government consumption, build up in internal security forces and failure of population to move into industrial and service sector jobs pressurises democracy downwards.
I have chosen the GapMinder data set for my research question. I have also selected some additional data from the GapMinder website to substantiate my research.
Research questions
a) Is there any relation between the income per person (incomperperson) of a country versus polity score (polityscore). The question I try to answer is if the income per person in each country has any bearing on the democratic nature of the country.
b) Do high oil consuming (oilperperson) and high income countries (incomeperperson) have a higher democracy score (polityscore)?
c) Are there any other influences to democracy like the influence of armed security forces?
Hypothesis
1. Poorer countries are less democratic.
2. Highly urbanised and high oil consuming countries tend to be more democratic.
3. Some countries due to historical reasons will have a higher democracy score with low income levels and vice versa.
4. High oil consuming countries will highly correlate with high incomes and high democracy scores.
5. High armed forces personnel will negatively correlate to democracy scores.
The variables selected for the study are from the dataset attached to the course (gapminder.csv):
country, oilperperson, incomeperperson, polityscore, armedforcesrate
Some other time series datasets from GapMinder I am using are
- GDPpercapitaconstant2000US.xlsx - Time series (1960 - 2011) - Gross Domestic Product per capita in constant 2000 US$. The inflation but not the differences in the cost of living between countries has been taken into account.
- indicator gapminder population.xlsx - Time series (1800 - 2015) - Total population
- indicatorpolityiv.xlsx - Time series (1800 - 2011) - Democracy score (based on Polity IV) -10 to 10. 10 being the highest.
- Oil Consumption per capita.xls - Time series (1965 - 2010) - Oil Consumption per capita (tonnes per year and person)
- Oil Production per capita.xls - Time series (1965 - 2011) - Crude oil production, per capita (toe)
- indicator army_total.xlsx - Time series (1985 - 2010) - Armed forces personnel, total
Literature review
1. Determinants of Democracy by Barro, Robert J. 1999 (Journal of Political Economy 107(S6): 158-183.)
Summary
Barro investigates the claim that higher standards of living promote democracy.
Barro concludes that higher standards of living do promote democracy. He also concludes than democracy scores tends to fall with urbanization where urbanization implies a greater reliance on natural resources.
2. Income and Democracy by Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, James A. Robinson, Pierre Yared
Summary
The paper investigates an earlier study by Barro (1999, S160) where an increase in the standard of living forecasts a gradual rise in democracy which presumes a positive relationship between income and democracy.
Daron et al. suggest that keeping certain factors constant in a country termed in the literature as "country fixed effects" they hypothesise that there is no causal effect of income on democracy i.e. the positive relationship between income and democracy disappear.
Daron et al. therefore conclude that due to "country fixed effects" there is no causal relationship between income and democracy.
3. DOES OIL HINDER DEMOCRACY? by Michael L. Ross
Summary
The paper investigates two claims.
One, is to investigate the claim that high income and high oil wealth countries have an anti democratic influence especially in the Middle East. The investigation goes further to research whether the removal of the influence of religion, culture and colonial history has any effect on the influence between oil wealth and democracy.
Second, whether the claim of negative influence of oil wealth with democracy can be generalised geographically and whether the hypothesis is true also for other rich natural resources other than oil within a country.
Ross concludes that
1. Oil wealth does hurt democracy ie. oil does have an anti-democratic influence. Oil does more damage to poorer countries than to rich countries.
2. He concludes that the damage done by oil is not restricted to Middle East.
3. Non fuel minerals also impede democratization.
4. High government consumption, build up in internal security forces and failure of population to move into industrial and service sector jobs pressurises democracy downwards.
Comments
Post a Comment